Twice a year, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) release cotton market projections that the global spinning industry uses as planning inputs. The June 2026 USDA Economic Research Service Cotton and Wool Outlook and the ICAC’s 2026/27 season forecast, released in May and June 2026, offer the most current baseline available for understanding where cotton demand is heading.

The headline finding from both agencies is that world cotton mill use is projected to rise in 2026/27 — reaching approximately 121.8 million bales according to USDA ERS, the highest level in six years — even as global production falls by an estimated 4–5.5 percent and ending stocks tighten to their lowest level since 2018/19.

This note explains the methodology behind those numbers, walks through the major consuming-country forecasts, and flags where the two agencies’ projections diverge or carry notable uncertainty.

How ICAC and USDA Measure Mill Use

Both organisations express cotton mill consumption in 480-pound bales (the US standard), allowing direct comparison even when underlying national data is collected in metric tonnes. ICAC aggregates trade statistics, national mill surveys, and trade-body submissions; USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service uses its network of agricultural attachés to gather country-level production and consumption data, which feeds into the Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) database updated monthly.

Neither agency reports real-time production data. The 2026/27 figures are forecasts based on extrapolation from 2025/26 actuals, macroeconomic growth assumptions, and current-season crop and trade flows. Revisions are common — USDA’s monthly PSD updates regularly adjust consumption numbers by 100,000–500,000 bales as new data arrives.

The baseline for 2025/26 puts world mill use at approximately 120.1 million bales. The 2026/27 projection of 121.8 million bales represents growth of roughly 1.4 percent, or about 1.7 million bales.

Country-Level Forecasts: Where the Demand Growth Sits

China

China remains the world’s largest cotton-consuming nation by a wide margin. USDA projects China’s 2026/27 mill use at 41.5 million bales, an increase of 500,000 bales (1.2 percent) above 2025/26 and, if achieved, the highest since 2010/11. China’s share of global mill use is projected at approximately 34 percent.

The growth assumption rests on sustained Chinese apparel exports — China remains the world’s largest apparel supplier — and on continued mill activity in Xinjiang, where a significant share of Chinese spinning capacity is concentrated. Regulatory risk around Xinjiang cotton supply chains remains an ongoing sourcing variable for brands in the US and European markets, even if it does not directly reduce Chinese domestic consumption.

India

India’s 2026/27 cotton mill use is forecast at 26.0 million bales, up 500,000 bales (approximately 2 percent) from 2025/26 and matching the all-time record set in 2020/21. India’s domestic spinning sector is benefiting from strong cotton yarn export demand, particularly from China, and from a projected 8 percent increase in India’s own cotton production for 2026/27 — a normal monsoon year — which would help hold input costs in check.

India accounts for roughly 21 percent of projected global mill use. The country’s combination of domestic cotton production, large installed spinning base, and growing export demand for yarn positions it as the market to watch for structural consumption growth through the decade.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s 2026/27 cotton mill use is forecast to rise 2.6 percent (200,000 bales) to 7.8 million bales, representing approximately 6.4 percent of global consumption. ICAC’s 10-year baseline projects Bangladesh’s share expanding to roughly 6 percent of world mill use by 2035/36 as its spinning capacity gradually develops.

The USDA GAIN report from Dhaka for FY2024–25 puts Bangladesh’s installed cotton consumption capacity at approximately 3.27 million tonnes per year, with actual consumption running at roughly 1.81 million tonnes — approximately 55 percent utilisation. The forecast increase to 7.8 million bales in 2026/27 implies continued growth in spinning output, though the structural gap between installed capacity and actual throughput remains large.

Pakistan

Pakistan’s 2026/27 cotton mill use is forecast to rebound 2 percent (200,000 bales) to 10.2 million bales, recovering from a 600,000-bale decline in 2025/26. Pakistan had a difficult 2025/26 season due to a combination of tight domestic cotton supply following the 2024 flooding and high energy costs. The 2026/27 forecast assumes partial recovery in domestic production and continued growth in Pakistani yarn exports.

Pakistan remains approximately 8.4 percent of global consumption in the USDA model.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s 2026/27 cotton mill use is projected at 7.8 million bales in the USDA ERS June 2026 report — notably slightly below the country’s 2024/25 record. ICAC’s long-range outlook is more bullish, projecting Vietnam’s share at approximately 7 percent of global mill use by 2035/36.

Vietnam imports 100 percent of the cotton it processes commercially. Cotton imports are forecast to grow 10 percent to 8.4 million bales in MY2026/27, per USDA GAIN data for Vietnam. That import growth reflects both spinning capacity expansion and the CPTPP trade framework’s yarn-forward rules of origin requirements for Vietnamese garment exports, which incentivise domestic processing of imported cotton rather than finished-fabric imports from China.

Turkey

Turkey’s mill use is projected at 6.8 million bales in 2026/27, representing approximately 5.6 percent of global consumption. Turkey’s integrated textile sector — which combines spinning, weaving, knitting, and finishing — positions it as a significant consumer despite a relatively small domestic cotton crop.

Production and Stocks: The Supply-Side Context

The consumption growth forecast exists against a tightening supply backdrop. Global cotton production in 2026/27 is projected at 116.0 million bales according to USDA, approximately 5.5 percent (6.6 million bales) below the 2025/26 estimate. Area planted is declining — China, the United States, and Brazil are all projected to reduce cotton area in 2026/27, per ICAC’s June 2026 release.

ICAC, in its press release accompanying the June 2026 update, attributed the area decline to “policy shifts and weak demand” — though the demand picture from the same agency’s mill-use forecast appears to be improving. The apparent contradiction reflects the lag between planting decisions (made months in advance) and the consumption upturn signalled by Q1 2026 trade data.

World ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected at 71.1 million bales (USDA), a 7 percent decline from 2025/26 and the lowest level since 2018/19. The stocks-to-use ratio — the metric most closely watched by textile traders for price signals — falls accordingly. Cotton futures markets entered 2026 in a moderate contango structure, and the tightening stocks outlook has supported price floors in the first half of the year.

Where the Two Agencies Differ

ICAC and USDA are broadly aligned on direction: consumption growth, production decline, stock drawdown. The magnitudes differ.

ICAC’s June 2026 release projected world production at roughly 25.7–25.9 million tonnes, consumption at approximately 25.2 million tonnes — leaving supply slightly ahead of demand. USDA’s model, working in bales, shows consumption exceeding production in 2026/27 by the stock-drawdown figure (121.8 million bales consumed vs. 116.0 million bales produced, with the gap met from existing stocks).

The methodological differences are real: ICAC uses a longer-running panel of national data; USDA’s PSD is revised monthly and tends to be more responsive to short-term trade data. For planning purposes, the safest approach is to track both and note where they converge — the current convergence on tighter stocks and demand recovery is the signal most relevant to spinning-sector capacity decisions.

What the Forecasts Mean for Spinning Operations

Three practical takeaways emerge from the 2026/27 picture.

Higher cotton prices are structurally supported. With stocks at a six-year low and production declining, the cost environment for spinning mills sourcing raw cotton will remain firm through the 2026/27 season absent a demand-side shock. Mills with forward cotton procurement or hedging programmes benefit from the current structure.

Asian demand remains dominant. China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam collectively account for roughly 76 percent of projected world mill use in 2026/27. Capital investment in spinning capacity will remain concentrated in this corridor. Mills in this region that can demonstrate compliance, quality consistency, and supply-chain traceability are positioned for the demand growth that USDA and ICAC both project through the decade.

The Bangladesh-Vietnam comparison is instructive. Both countries are forecast at approximately 7.8 million bales of 2026/27 consumption. Both import all or nearly all raw cotton. Their supply-chain structures differ sharply — Bangladesh is primarily a spinning-and-garment destination; Vietnam is spinning and garment but with a significantly different industrial-zone infrastructure, foreign investment profile, and trade agreement exposure. The ICAC long-range baseline suggests Vietnam reaching 7 percent of world mill use by the mid-2030s; Bangladesh at 6 percent. The trajectory from here, for both, is a function of energy, labour, policy, and investment decisions that no commodity forecast can fully anticipate.