Brazil has taken the top spot in world cotton exports, and Indian mills are among the buyers who made it possible. Shipments from Brazil to India grew more than 40-fold in two years, helped by India’s suspension of its 11 per cent import duty. With that suspension scheduled to end on 31 October, mills are weighing Brazilian lint against US, Australian and African supply while the policy is still unresolved.

The Ranking Change

According to Brazil’s cotton association, Abrapa, Brazil exported about 3.37 million tonnes of lint between August 2025 and July 2026, up 19% on the previous cycle, for record revenue of $5.3 billion. Citing USDA data, Abrapa put US exports for the same marketing year at 2.656 million tonnes, which puts Brazil more than 700,000 tonnes ahead. Australia was third at about 1.24 million tonnes.

One caveat on the headline: the figures come mainly from Abrapa’s own reporting of customs and USDA data. We did not find a USDA release confirming the 2025/26 ranking, and an earlier USDA baseline had projected Brazil staying second through the early 2030s. The direction of travel is clear, but the margin depends on whose marketing-year calendar is used.

Where India Fits

Brazil’s destination mix shows how important Asian spinners have become. Of Brazil’s 2025/26 exports, China took about 770,500 tonnes (23%), Bangladesh about 585,000 (17%), Turkiye about 441,000 (13%), Pakistan about 414,000 (12%), Vietnam about 393,000 (12%) and India about 354,000 (10%). Abrapa has also said that roughly 40% of cotton imported by India comes from Brazil. Our own check against the Cotton Association of India’s 62 lakh bale import estimate, which is about 1.05 million tonnes, gives something nearer a third, which suggests the two numbers use different seasons or definitions.

Another industry source cited Brazil at more than 300,000 tonnes, Australia more than 200,000 and the US 180,000 in India’s 2025-26 imports. We treat that as secondary, but it is consistent in order with Abrapa’s data: Brazil first, Australia second, the US third.

India is a significant buyer but not the largest. The five destinations ahead of it account for about 77% of Brazil’s shipments, so Indian mills are bidding for Brazilian bales against Chinese, Bangladeshi, Turkish, Pakistani and Vietnamese spinners. Monthly data shows how lumpy that can be: in March 2026, India imported 41,387 tonnes, about 12% of a record month for Brazilian exports valued at roughly $530 million. Abrapa also estimates that India could take up to 300,000 tonnes more a year from Brazil if the 11% tariff were lowered, which is why Brazil is lobbying for a trade deal. That is an industry association’s projection, not a forecast to plan around.

Why US Cotton Lost Ground in India

Abrapa says US cotton still faces an additional tariff in China, which reduces its competitiveness there. Abrapa links that disadvantage to Brazil’s gains. For Indian mills, the more direct drivers of origin choice in 2025-26 were the temporary removal of the 11% duty and relative landed price.

Rabobank has been quoted in trade coverage saying that when Indian and global prices are near parity, mills will decide on fibre quality, availability and timely delivery. That is the useful framing: with price roughly even, origin choice becomes a quality-and-logistics decision.

Brazil, the US, Australia and West Africa: Comparing on Mill Criteria

We did not find a current published CFR comparison across origins, and quoting one without a source would be misleading. What mills can compare directly, using their own offers:

  • Landed price. Ask for CFR quotes on equivalent grades and staple lengths, with and without duty, and compare on a per-kg landed basis. A cheaper Brazilian bale that arrives late can cost more than a dearer one that arrives on time.
  • Quality and consistency. Micronaire, staple length, strength and contamination should be tested against the mill’s count range for every origin, not assumed from reputation.
  • Delivery reliability. Shipping windows and load-port performance differ by origin. Build in buffer against the duty deadline.
  • Shipment timing. Ask each seller for a firm shipment window and compare it with the date that governs duty-free eligibility.

The Supply Risk Behind Brazil’s Lead

Abrapa has cut its forecast for the 2026 crop, with plantings of about 2.00 million hectares, down 8%, and production of about 3.90 million tonnes. Another source projects Brazilian exports at around 3.33 million tonnes in 2026/27, still the world’s largest. A leading exporter shipping slightly less is not a shortage, but it narrows the room for error. Mills that standardise on one origin are exposed to that origin’s crop and freight.

The 31 October Question

Indian mills face a deadline. As of 19 October, the latest reporting we found said the government was weighing an extension of the duty waiver, not that one had been notified. Mills should confirm with their customs broker which date governs eligibility, since the answer depends on the notification’s wording, and should treat any extension as unconfirmed until it appears in the Gazette. For the wider picture, see our look at cotton import duty after 31 October.

The sourcing lesson is to avoid binary decisions. Brazil’s rise gives Indian mills a credible second pillar of supply, but a mill buying 40% of its imports from one country is still concentrated. Splitting contracts across two or three origins, fixing grade specifications alongside price, and testing lots on arrival costs little against the price of a single quality failure.

Sources: Abrapa export data (Brazil 2025/26: 3.374 million tonnes; destination shares) via just-style (1 September 2026) and Textalks (21 August 2026); USDA US export figure as cited by Abrapa; Cotton Association of India 2025-26 import estimate (12 August 2026); Ecotextile and Datamar coverage of Abrapa’s India figures and 2026 crop outlook (April 2026 onward; secondary); India Seatrade News, 19 October 2026 (headline on duty extension).